Year-end Reflections and the Outlook for 2025
2024 saw positive mining developments. Can the portents translate into tangible gains in 2025?
An ending is only ever a beginning of something else.
Attributed to various poets including T.S. Eliot and Ralph Waldo Emerson, this thought sums up why I enjoy looking back at the year, even with a bit of rose-tinted reminiscing, because it gives the opportunity to make predictions and positive plans for the year ahead.
In many important respects, Zambia’s mining sector had a successful 2024.
Barrick announced positive findings from its feasibility study to expand its major Copperbelt mine at Lumwana. Engineering and pre-construction preparation is now almost complete, and building should start soon, with output planned during 2028. The Canadian-headquartered company expects the $2bn new super-pit investment to double production and extend the mine’s life to 2060, or even beyond.
A new $2.3bn investment is on the horizon from Bill Gates-linked exploration company, Kobold Metals, which announced plans to sink mining shafts in 2026, targeting production of 300,000 tonnes at Mingomba. Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi-headquartered International Resources Holding (IRH) completed a $1.1bn deal to acquire 51% in Mopani Copper Mines, and immediately announced plans to scale up copper production to 200,000 tonnes by 2027-8.
And after a 5-year legal process, in the middle of 2024 Vedanta Resources regained majority shareholding of the Konkola Copper Mine, and access to its asset. KCM has one of the world’s largest deposits, and once boosted production kicks in it will be a major contributor to the country’s output.
First Quantum Minerals (FQM) progressed its S3 expansion project at the Kansanshi mine near Solwezi. The mine’s copper output has been inconsistent over the last 3-4 years, but Kansanshi is vital to President Hichilema’s target of 3 million tonnes per annum by 2031, because it has Zambia’s largest confirmed reserves. FQM’s expansion is projected to double Kansanshi production and extend the mine’s life by 20 years.
FQM is also regearing at Kalumbila. The $2bn Sentinel mine already incorporates leading-edge technologies. Interestingly, in May the Zambia Association of Manufacturers (ZAM) president, Ashu Sagar, toured the mine and punted the obvious benefits of the Kalumbila Multi-Facility Economic Zone (MFEZ) around Kalumbila Town. Beyond mining, the MFEZ, he said, “represents a significant opportunity for the future of manufacturing in Zambia.”
This has been one of my ideas for a while now – the country must think innovatively about how to add value to the raw, mined mineral or metal. Creating manufacturing hubs near the mines is step one; enticing foreign and local investment by creating tax-free zones would be an even bolder move. The International Finance Corporation, part of the World Bank Group, confirms the potential within this thinking. In its latest report on the Zambian economy the IDC finds that “targeted and concrete policy action could realise significant investment potential within two to five years” – some $21bn, with 80,000 new jobs created.
These big news 2024 stories for Zambia’s mining sector should be seen in the context of ongoing increases in the global demand for copper as the clean energy transition gathers momentum. Demand is forecast to soar to 31 million tonnes in 2030, with an overall copper market value estimated at $260bn. And it will keep rising: by 2050 copper demand will have increased by 70% compared to 2020, according to BHP Billiton. Only by encouraging investment and developing its mines will Zambia be able to gain a meaningful slice of this market. Which is why, among others, the Kansanshi, Kalumbila, KoBold, Konkola and Lumwana projects, and IRH’s acquisition of Mopani, represent good news for the country’s economy.
Persevering on debt restructuring
Investment stimulus was also signalled in June when, after an exhaustive three-and-a-half-year negotiation, a significant portion of Zambia’s national debt was finally restructured. “It was like a mission impossible, it wasn’t a straight line. It was zig-zag, sideways, forward, backwards, down, up. But we kept our eyes on the ball,” Zambian President Hichilema said. Ironically, he was speaking a year too early, because the $6.3bn restructuring deal of 2023 then collapsed. But an arrangement in terms of the Group of 20 (G20) wealthy nations’ Common Framework for Debt Treatments mechanism to help low-income countries restructure debt was eventually secured during 2024. Zambia’s overall debt has been trimmed by $900m, and the repayment period extended for $3bn of its Eurobond debt and about $6bn of other debt.
There was also good news for the country’s economy at the United Nations’ COP29 summit in November this year. Bilateral carbon market agreements were signed with Norway, Singapore and Sweden. This is an important milestone, because, by signalling that Zambia is serious about its commitment to climate change mitigation initiatives, it opens doors and smooths confidence levels for carbon market project investors.
Indeed, climate mitigation and increased access to renewable energy are vital for the nation’s economic progress. Throughout 2024 we have experienced the devastating effects of extreme weather. Together with four neighbours – Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia and Zimbabwe – Zambia declared a state of drought disaster. Hydroelectric power supply has been severely cut, curtailing economic activity, including mining. Worse have been the hits to agriculture: food production impacts, according to the UN’s World Food Programme, are compromising food security for 27 million people in the region.
Positive prospects, but a need for big thinking
So, 2024 was a year of positives and problems. The former outweigh the latter; economic indicators are ticking upwards, government’s structural framework for the mining industry is increasingly business-friendly, and mining industry players are geared up to contribute to the government’s target of 3 million tonnes of annual copper production. My overall conclusion is that Zambia has taken important steps towards improving its economic prospects and, in turn, the lives of its people.
But there is still much work to do. Will 2025 see some practical results in the country’s renewable energy initiatives? Will the debt restructuring translate into scaled-up government allocations to poverty alleviation measures, to education, to public-private partnerships to gear much-needed investment in infrastructure? Who is thinking big, beyond 2025, to the benefits for the country if it were to shift from mining raw metals and minerals to mining plus output beneficiation?
Now that would be a real beginning of something new.
In my personal capacity and as chairman of JVChantete, one of the largest and leading mining contractor in Zambia, I wish you all a blessed Christmas and everything of the best for the year ahead.