Africa Adieu, or a Phoenix Rising?
The shifting global order puts African mining in the maelstrom. As current affairs shockwaves roll in, how should African miners adapt?
What do these numbers represent?
$100 billion. $4.560 billion. -13.6%.
They are some of the imminent, negative financial impacts upon business, industry and investment prospects triggered by the new Trump administration as the U.S. pivots dramatically, and fast, in its geostrategy, approach to trade and multilateralism, and the prioritisation of sustainability issues. “These policies are upending global trade and economics,” says the authoritative Financial Times, a news medium that rarely editorialises so adamantly. (Specific explanations for the three numbers are at the bottom of this article.)
Some of these changes were in the wings, pre-announced in the president’s election campaign. Nonetheless, in just three months since he took office again, tariffs, turbulence and turmoil are the new normal. Some entire national economies may soon slip into recession, and industries that were previously projecting sound growth and anticipating a more conventionally Republican approach to business, including widespread deregulation, are now having to reevaluate.
Mining in Africa – the world’s second-largest mining geography after Asia – is caught in this vortex. What are the main areas of concern, and how should leaders of mining operations be adapting to the shape-shifting landscape?
Perhaps most importantly, complexities and contradictions should not obscure the more powerful and enduring undercurrents of transformation. The imposition of tariffs is presented as a lever to achieve one of President Trump’s stated, larger goals, that of boosting domestic U.S. manufacturing. Yet wherever factories are based they will need the raw material metals and minerals that go into thousands of everyday, modern-day products as well as the high-tech innovations already in planned pipelines. And although its traction may reduce for a period, the transition to renewable energy and the green economy has long since begun; the critical mass of industries, multilateral organisations and science and technology leaders will not cease their work.
Clearly, then, the long-term opportunity remains. Trump, too, knows this, which is the real reason behind his instigation of some form of ceasefire or peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Trump would like a deal which rewards the U.S. with access to Ukraine’s resources, which include copper, manganese and rare earths. Similarly with regard to Greenland: together with its geostrategic importance, his administration is making overtones to that country because of its resources.
Remember, too, that in less than four years’ time America may have a different administration. Things may change again; indeed, change is an ever constant in today’s world. So Africa’s leaders must take responsibility for forging greater self-reliance and improving the sociopolitical landscape and economic environment regardless of events they cannot influence in other parts of the world. The overarching scenario advice to Africa’s mining leaders, then, is to balance efforts for today’s reality while not losing four years of momentum towards the larger wave of technology and energy transformations.
Dealmaking as a blueprint?
However, certain practical steps should be prioritised.
Regional security is largely out of mining leaders’ hands, but it is an imperative for both current mining operations and exploration, and longer-term investment decisions. Too many parts of Africa are conflict zones; a more stable and secure Africa would be far better poised for leaping growth – a byproduct of which will be an increase in internal demand for its own continent-wide resources.
We know President Trump pursues deals. One such proposed deal, in preliminary discussions in February this year, is DRC President Félix Tshisekedi’s offer of access by American mining companies to the DRC’s cobalt, copper and uranium reserves in return for military support in resisting rebel forces. U.S. commerce secretary Howard Lutnick acknowledges that the superpower’s industries, including armaments, depend on copper. Simultaneously, in keeping with the administration’s stance, he says that the metal should be mined and “made in America, no exemptions, no exceptions”. Assuming Trump slashes the red tape involved in opening sites, new U.S. copper mines would take at least 12-15 years to be fully operational. Nonetheless, and despite copper being a carve-out exemption from the tariff list, copper producing countries like Zambia should be concerned – although there is opportunity, too: could the Zambian government follow the DRC’s example by proactively, and more effectively, sweetening a copper deal with America to minimise the impact of tariffs, and, in parallel, to prompt the country’s mines to ramp up production?
The larger issue is the Trump administration’s belief that China is using its influence to dominate the global copper market and supplies, a point not without merit. Indeed, China’s demand for mining output will continue to necessitate that Africa’s leaders hedge their bets, or balance a tightrope, across the power plays of America and China as the world’s two giant economies. This is made even more complex by what seems to be more than a thaw in U.S.-Russia relations, with Russia having its own agenda, targeting control or influence over mineral resources in return for military support to prop up African regimes. Burkina Faso, the Central African Republic, Niger, and Mali are recent instances where Moscow has moved into territories rich in mineral wealth.
Or, look neither west nor east?
Global leaders and policymakers know that Africa is mineral-rich, having approximately 30% of the world’s metals reserves – and higher proportions of critical ones like chromium, manganese and the group of platinum metals. What the continent has is essential to a sustainable future. So other economic blocs are also watchful of opportunities in Africa. Emerging powerhouses in the Gulf have been stepping up their interests for some time, with the UAE, having invested $110 billion, ranking as the largest single foreign direct international investor in Africa over the five years to 2023. Even Oman is entering the fray, having acquired, in November last year, a 41% stake in the world’s fourth-largest diamond mining operation, Angola’s state-owned Catoca. Indeed, Gulf economies are on an urgent mission to pivot from oil and gas. There is a clear “emerging economic partnership,” between Africa and the Gulf, confirms the World Economic Forum.
In crisis lies opportunity
There is another pathway. At February’s African Union (AU) Summit in Addis Ababa, Zambia’s President Hakainde Hichilema admitted that the disruption caused by the curtailment of United States Agency for International Development (USAID) funding “cannot be overstated”. He noted, too, that it highlighted the need for African nations to “manage their resources prudently,” and that it is “an opportunity for Africa to strengthen its self-reliance.”
I’ve previously written about this, long before current events have made it more topical and urgent.
America has pulled out of the Global Green New Deal, but that doesn’t change the question: How will Africa move to net zero? Fundamentally, this is important for the health of Africa’s citizens, and for the continent’s environmental sustainability. But it is also the key to unlock opportunities for expanded trade and partnerships with Europe – a massive economic bloc in its own right – because soon rigorous adherence to green standards will be mandatory for exports to European Union countries: the EU has introduced a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) policy to push for lower greenhouse gas emissions in energy-intensive industries, including metals processing.
Industrialising Africa’s green economy is a vital next step. Mining is front-and-centre of any strategy towards achieving this. So, the mining industry on the continent must plan for local beneficiation and the integration of their operations within domestic processing hubs and wider value chains. It must participate in efforts to ensure the Lobito Corridor project – connecting mines across Angola, the DRC and Zambia to ports – does not disappear during and with the Trump administration. And it must restlessly lobby for the accelerated implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement to boost trade and investment and leverage economic diversification.
Africa’s mining industry cannot do this alone, nor even in close partnership with domestic governments and pan-regional bodies such as the Southern African Development Community (SADC) or the African Economic Community (AEC). International financing and capital partners are needed. Whilst it is now something of an irony that Global North investors, among whom many giants are U.S.-domiciled, have been critical of African nations’ regulatory structures and mining policy uncertainty, it is still true that the world’s financial muscle flexes from the capital markets and boardrooms of Wall Street. So it is in Africa’s interests to sort its own policy house out. Zambia, for example, has made good strides recently, but in South Africa, home to the continent’s largest mining industry, much still needs to be done to boost investor confidence.
As such, the biggest question for mining companies in Africa is not how they can stabilise revenues and profits in 2025, or where they see themselves in four years’ time. It is how they will be positioned a decade or so from now, when the world’s mining industry is projected to stand at nearly $4 trillion.[1] What share of that will be Africa’s, will it have grown, and will mining companies on the continent be part of revitalised national and continent-wide economies that contribute sustainably to the welfare of Africa’s people?
The significance of the numbers at the beginning of the article:
$100 billion is the estimated added annual cost to the global automotive sector of the Trump administration’s 25% tariffs on all foreign-made vehicles coming into the US. Analysts predict the sector will be thrown into chaos as the tariffs will be passed directly to American buyers in the world’s second-largest car market. The DRC, Gabon, Madagascar, Mozambique, Tanzania, South Africa, and Zambia are among the African nations that will be directly affected by the near certain contraction of the automotive market.
$4.560 billion is the composite figure, committed by previous American administrations in various tranches, to the Lobito Corridor infrastructure project connecting Angola’s, Zambia’s and the DRC’s mining industries more efficiently to transport hubs and ports. The Trump administration has effectively shut down USAID and is reevaluating any and all soft power investments, even those previously planned in friendly, allied countries.
-13.6% is the projected drop in the per-tonne copper price by the end of Q2 2025. Tariffs are already triggering a trade war, and demand for the metal is forecast to plummet as the global economy slows down. China, accounting for over half of the world’s copper demand, is forecast to lose significant momentum in its economy.
What do you make of how these changes will affect the outlook for Africa’s mining sector? Drop me a line at lafras@iafrica.com
[1] $3.7 Trillion Mining Market Opportunities and Strategies to 2033, Research&Markets, February 2025